Potential distribution of two lynx species in europe under paleoclimatological scenarios and anthropogenic climate change scenarios

Abstract

Background: Today’s European fauna was formed under the influence of Paleoclimatic change. The distribution of two wild cat species of Europe, Lynx pardinus and Lynx lynx, 22,000 and 6,000 years ago were determined by the MaxEnt method in relation to the Paleoclimatological scenarios (LGM and Mid-Holocene) and fossil records. Then, the current climate conditions and their distributions under the effect of anthropogenic climate change scenarios were analyzed with the current existence records. Results: It was determined that these two wild cats were distributed according to preys on which they specialized, rather than the climate change that lasted for thousands of years. It was observed that Lynx Pardinus, which specialized only on European rabbit hunting, could not expand its distribution from past to present. Lynx lynx, on the other hand, expanded its distribution throughout the Palearctic region and adapted to different ecosystem varieties by means of its specialization on many preys from mouse to moose. Based on the climate envelope model results created with the help of MaxEnt which considers anthropogenic climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 2070) and today’s data of two existing Lynx species, suitable habitats for L. pardinus will decrease and suitable habitats will emerge in Western France. L. lynx, on the other hand, will limit its wide distribution to the North, except for the Alps, the Carpathians and the Caucasus, which will serve as refugial areas. Conclusion: These results therefore require that measurements such as reducing climate change impacts over the next 50 years, protecting existing and potential habitats in advance, and reducing anthropogenic impact should be enforced.